Vice President Kamala Harris has moved into the betting lead for the first time since being elevated to the top of the ticket.
Harris has a 50.7% chance to be elected president, while former President Trump sits at a 47.9% chance to win the election, according to the Real Clear Politics betting average on Thursday.
Thursday marked the first time Harris has been the betting favorite to win the election, while it’s also the first time the Democratic ticket has been favored over Trump since May 1, when President Biden was still in the race. On that day, Biden held a narrow 42.3% to 42.2% advantage in the Real Clear Politics betting average.
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Since that day, Trump continued to put distance between himself and Biden, peaking as a 66.2% favorite on July 15.
But Trump’s lead steadily declined in the weeks after Biden’s decision to drop out of the race and endorse Harris, who quickly went on to lock up the Democratic nomination.
Trump’s odds tumble culminated Thursday, just days after Harris selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to join her on the ticket, a move the Harris campaign believes will help her solidify support in critical Midwestern swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Vice President Kamala Harris. (Reuters/Kevin Mohatt/Pool)
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Harris was either leading or tied with Trump on Thursday in all the major betting markets tracked by Real Clear Politics, with her biggest lead coming on the popular platform Predictit, a New Zealand-based prediction market that offers “shares” of political outcomes.
Harris shares were selling for 57 cents on the platform as of Thursday morning, while Trump shares were selling for 46 cents, an 11-cent lead for the vice president. Shares on the platform are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, meaning the price of a share essentially represents the percentage chance of a particular outcome.
Former President Trump. (Sean Rayford/Getty Images)
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The shift in the betting favorite comes as Harris has also overtaken Trump in many national polls, becoming the leader on the Real Clear Politics polling average for the first time on Monday. That lead represents the first time the presumed Democratic ticket has had the advantage since September 11 of last year, when Biden a 44.5% to 44.3% advantage.
Neither the Trump nor Harris campaigns immediately responded to Fox News Digital requests for comment.
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